Brazil is the third largest producer of chicken meat in the world, behind the United States (USA) and China. In 2009 it surpassed the USA, reaching the 1st place in exports. It also occupies a good position in egg production, 7th place.
Poultry production generates around 2 million direct and indirect jobs throughout Brazil, contributing to a significant increase in the economy. The south and southeast regions are the largest producers, but there is a growing production in the center-west region due to the production of corn and soybeans. The states that produce the most chicken are the states of Paraná (27%), Santa Catarina (26%) and Rio Grande do Sul (23%).
The low cost with investment in facilities and high production of grains, favors the production of chickens in Brazil.
Total: Production in 2021: 100,537 millions tons
In 2021, China surpassed Brazil in chicken meat production by 200 thousand tons, leaving China in second place in the world ranking and Brazil in third place. The USDA forecasts for 2022 are that Brazil will surpass China in production, estimating a total production of 14.85 million tons, while China would reduce its production from 14.7 million in 2021, to 14.5 million in 2022; Thus, Brazil remains the 2nd largest producer of chicken meat in the world.
Production of chicken meat reached 14,5 millions tons in 2021, 5% higher than that recorded in 2020, with 13,85 million tons. The volume projected for 2022 could reach up to 14,85 million tons, a volume 2% higher compared to 2021.
In exports, the volumes for total shipments in 2021 reached 4,58 million tons, a number 8% higher than that achieved in 2020, with 4,231 million tons. In 2022, international sales could reach 4.750 million tons, a volume that exceeds 2021 exports by 5%.
As for per capita consumption, the index reached 46 kilograms per capita in 2021, 2% higher than the consumption recorded in 2020, with 45.27 kilograms. By 2022, projected per capita consumption will reach 48 kilograms, 4% higher than in 2021.
Both production and exports achieved in 2021 and projected for 2022 are all-time highs.
According to forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), world chicken meat exports in the year 2022 tend to register an increase of just over 2.5% and, as has already occurred in 2019 and 2020, will once again exceed the mark. annual production of 13 million tons. Estimates for the current year suggest a volume close to, but slightly below this mark – 12.996 million tons.
In the words of the USDA, moderate growth in most of the most important markets will allow for more significant growth rates among large exporters. And as North American exports are expected to fall by close to 1% (from 3.421 million/t to 3.387 million/t),
Brazil, the world leader in exports of the product, will be responsible for more than a third of the estimated increase, as “is well positioned to profit from growing demand from the European Union and the UK.” The forecast is something around 4.180 million tons of in natura product.
For the USDA, Brazil is also able to meet the growing imports from East Asia and the Middle East. But he points out that the increase in demand from Asia, especially from Japan and China, will also support the expansion of exports from Thailand.
The US agriculture body ends its analysis by noting that, despite the increase in domestic production, chicken meat imports from China will remain firm. The expected increase will be limited, not reaching 3%. But the 900,000 tonnes for 2022 remain high, corresponding to 90% of the 999,000 tonnes recorded in 2019, a historic record in Chinese imports of the product.
Note that, in all its projections, the USDA continues to disregard exports and imports of chicken feet/paws. Therefore, the effective values will be higher than those indicated, especially with regard to Brazil and China.
The MAPA organization projected the possible evolution of Brazilian chicken meat production until 2031.
He foresees that, in this period of time, the total produced by the sector may increase at a rate of approximately 2.5% per year, accumulating an increase of almost 28% in 10 years.
However, if there are no obstacles, production can present much more significant levels of evolution, close to 4%. This is what SPA projects as the upper limit. In this case, the total produced in 2031 could reach 21.6 million tons, about 46% more than the forecast for the current year.
Monitoring covering 15 years of exports – 2007 to 2021 – suggests that it is not the month of January that we will experience fewer shipments of frango meat. In the average of 15 years, the volume recorded in January corresponds to 7.23% of the annual total, while the record occurred no more than July, with 9.06% two annual shipments.
Naturally, exports do not have mathematical performance: they depend on moments, especially economic ones. But I assume that in 2022 we will accompany the average two last 15 years, the monthly results will be, approximately, those projected in the graph below.
The projection is restricted to raw frango meat – cuts and whole product. And it indicates, for the year, a volume close to 4.4 million tons, about 3.5% more than or exported in 2021.
But if we also consider the shipments of salted frango meat and two industrialized frango meats, the annual total can reach and exceed 4,650 thousand tons, since the product in nature corresponds (average of 2021) to 94% two sector shipments. In this case, the annual increase – considering the four main exported items – would be greater than 4%.
It is interesting to note that the volume shipped in the month of January 2022 – 317.7 thousand tons of natural product – corresponds to the second best result recorded in the month of January. If the performance is maintained, the numbers now projected could be exceeded. The problems – especially sanitary – faced by other exporting countries apontam nessa address.
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